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Global markets focused on US inflation information in the new week

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While the inflation rush continues to have an impact on asset prices around the world, the US inflation information, which will be announced on Friday this week, has placed the focus of investors.

Although the employment data announced last week, indicating that the wheels in the US economy continue to turn rapidly, calmed the recession concerns, the estimates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could continue its 50 basis point interest rate steps until the end of the year also increased.

While non-agricultural employment in the country increased by 390 thousand people in May, exceeding market expectations, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6 percent.

The average hourly profits, which the Fed carefully monitors, increased by 0.3 percent in one-to-one cycles to $31.95, but remained below the projections.

On the other hand, the US government has announced that some of its sanctions on China for dealing with inflation may be lifted or rates may be partially reduced.

Despite this, developments that may adversely affect inflation expectations around the world continue to occur.


While the country’s oil demand is expected to increase after China gradually lifted the restrictions it had put into practice with the new type of coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic, Saudi Arabia increased the price of the oil it sold to Asia. The news that the United States might allow Venezuela to export oil to Europe, however, eroded the rise in oil prices.

The barrel price of Brent oil, which reached its highest level since March 9 with 120.6 dollars on Friday, started the new week at 119.5 dollars with a decrease of 0.8 percent.

While Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with missiles reduced hopes for peace, the rise in wheat contracts in the US futures markets approached 4 percent.

With these developments, the S&P 500 index lost 1.63%, the Nasdaq index by 2.47 percent and the Dow Jones index by 1.05 percent in the New York stock market on Friday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with buyers.


While eyes in Europe turn to the monetary policy meeting of the ECB this week, the bank is expected to announce that it will stop asset purchases at the end of this month.

While the ECB is not expected to increase interest rates at this meeting, it is considered certain that it will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting. On the other hand, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the September meeting continues to rise.

On Friday, Germany’s DAX 30 index lost 0.17 percent, France’s CAC 40 index lost 0.23 percent and Italy’s FTSE MIB 30 index lost 1.06 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with an upward trend.

In Asia, the risk appetite increased with the expectation that after China took the Covid-19 epidemic under control to a large extent, it started to become normal again and the USA might change the tariffs it applied to China.


The economic recovery in China also supported commodity prices, while copper reached its highest level in the last month with $4.38 per pound.

According to the macroeconomic information announced in the country, although the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services branch in May rose to 41.4, he pointed out that the contraction continued.

With these developments, Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 0.6 percent, Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.9 percent and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 1.4 percent near the closing.

The BIST 100 index, which saw an all-time high with 2,623.17 points on Friday in the domestic market, regressed with the profit selling that increased its effect at these levels, and closed the day at 2,601.25 points, quickly below the previous close. The index gained 6.66 percent on a weekly basis.

Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is at 16,5640 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 16.4176 with a decrease of 0.3 percent on Friday.

Analysts said that the information agenda abroad is calm today, and that the real effective exchange rate information will be followed in the country, and said that, technically, 2,620 and 2,650 levels in the BIST 100 index stand out as resistance and 2,560 points as reinforcements .

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