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Deniz Berktay reports from Kyiv: When will the war end?

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Despite Turkey’s attempt (with the support of the UN) to bring Ukraine and Russia together, this time Ukraine started to act on the ceasefire issue. Despite the fact that Ukraine’s main demand was a ceasefire at the beginning of the war, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said the previous day that Russia should withdraw from the areas it occupied as of February 24, in order for Ukraine to cease the fire ( some Ukrainian officials said that the war was started by Russia in 2014). He said that he should continue until he withdrew from the cities of Crimea and Donetsk-Lugansk, which he occupied in Turkey. According to these, Zelensky’s statement is again more moderate). Ukrainian officials said the army would launch a counterattack by the end of this month, but these expectations have now been postponed to the end of summer. Because arms shipments to Ukraine from the West continue slower than expected. While the German press writes that Prime Minister Scholz delayed the delivery of the armored vehicles promised to Ukraine, Poland also complains that Germany does not now give the tanks that Germany promised to give to Poland in return for the German tanks it gave to Ukraine. Britain and Denmark, on the other hand, agreed to supply Ukraine with anti-ship missiles. This is said to be useful in fending off Russian ships besieging Ukrainian ports. But when these weapons will reach Ukraine and for how long they can be used is a different matter. Ukrainian officials predict that the war will be over by the end of this year. However, even if the Ukrainians do not lose new land until the autumn, it seems a problem that they can take back Kherson and Mariupol, which the Russians had captured and settled, with an attack.

Ukrainian authorities say that Russia’s casualties in the war approached 30 thousand. However, there was an issue that the writer of the Republic, Barış Doster, drew attention to in a program: Ukrainian officials were not talking about their own losses. Answering a question the previous day, Zelensky said that between 50 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives in the Donbas every day. Even in this calm phase of the war, if there are close to 100 casualties a day, it turns out that the loss suffered by Ukraine in three months is not to be underestimated.

The prolongation of the war will be devastating for both Russia and Ukraine.

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